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  • IMF下调全球经济增长预期至3%

    《经济参考报》10月17日刊发题为《IMF下调全球经济增长预期至3%》的报道。文章称,当地时间10月15日,国际货币基金组织(IMF)发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》,将2019年世界经济增速下调至3%,较今年7月份预测值下调0.2个百分点。这也是2008年金融危机爆发以来最低水平。

    经济增速下调

    今年以来,国际货币基金组织已经四次下调全球经济增长速度。2019年1月,国际货币基金组织将2019年全球经济增速预期由此前的3.7%下调至3.5%;2019年4月,国际货币基金组织将2019年全球经济增速预期由3.5%下调至3.3%;2019年7月,国际货币基金组织2019年全球经济增速预期由3.3%下调至3.2%;10月的报告中,又将2019年全球经济增速预期由3.2%下调至3%。在本期《世界经济展望》中,国际货币基金组织还将对2020年的全球经济增速预期下调至3.4%,和7月时的预测相比下调0.1个百分点。

    报告预计,发达经济体今明两年经济增速将分别为1.7%和1.7%,其中今年增速预期较7月份时下调0.2%,明年则维持不变。对于新兴市场和发展中经济体,报告将今明两年GDP增速预期分别下调0.2和0.1个百分点至3.9%和4.6%。

    从国别看,国际货币基金组织下调美国2019年增速预测0.2个百分点至2.4%,上调2020年增速预测0.2个百分点至2.1%。国际货币基金组织指出,贸易相关的不确定性已经给美国的企业投资带来了负面影响,但是就业和消费依然强劲,政策刺激也对经济起到了提振作用。

    国际货币基金组织还分别下调了欧元区今明两年的增速预测0.1和0.2个百分点至1.2%和1.4%。IMF称,这主要是由于外部需求放缓导致欧元区出口疲软,以及英国脱欧相关的不确定性继续拖累英国的经济增长。

    在全球经济增长放缓的背景下,报告将印度2019年的经济增长预期从4月份的7.3%下调至6.1%,预计2020年将加速增长至7%。

    下行风险犹存

    在本期《世界经济展望》中,国际货币基金组织指出,全球经济增长面临着一些下行风险:贸易和地缘政治紧张局势的加剧,包括与英国退出欧盟有关的风险,可能进一步干扰经济活动,并导致新兴市场经济体和欧元区已经脆弱的复苏出现脱轨。这可能引起风险情绪的急剧变化、金融动荡以及新兴市场经济体资本流入的逆转。这些因素进一步削弱了经济增长。

    国际货币基金组织分析说,造成增长疲软的原因是,制造业活动和全球贸易急剧恶化,关税的提高和持续的贸易政策不确定性损害了投资和对资本品的需求。

    贸易政策不确定性导致全球贸易形势恶化,是拖累全球经济增长的主要原因之一。数据显示,2019年上半年,全球贸易额增速已降至1%,是2012年以来最低水平。国际货币基金组织预计,2019年包括货物和服务在内的全球贸易额增幅或仅为1.1%,远低于2018年的3.6%,且低于7月的预测值1.4个百分点;2020年全球贸易额有望增长3.2%,也较7月下调了0.5个百分点。国际货币基金组织估计,贸易紧张局势将导致全球GDP在2019年被拉低0.3%-0.4%,到2020年将导致全球GDP水平累计下降0.8%。

    此前,在10月8日,国际货币基金组织新任总裁——克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃发表了就任以来的第一次演讲。她表示,两年前,全球经济同步回升。按GDP衡量,全世界将近75%的地方都在加速增长。如今,世界经济更多领域都在同步发展,但不幸的是,此时的经济增长却在不断减速。她明确指出,由于贸易紧张局势等原因,全球的制造业活动和投资力度已大大减弱,而且服务业和消费可能很快也会受到影响。与此同时,这些裂痕还在扩大。如今争端扩展到多个国家,并且蔓延到其他关键领域。她警告,由于经济体互联互通,不消多时,更多的经济体将会感受到这种影响。即使2020年经济增长回升,目前的裂痕也可能带来持续一代人的种种变化——供应链中断、贸易部门各自为政、“数字柏林墙”使各国不得不在各种技术体系间作出选择。

    该机构还指出,全球经济增速下调不仅反映了贸易争端带来的冲击,同样还显示出了政府采取措施控制债务对国内需求造成的影响。

    政策多管齐下

    面对当前全球经济增长下行的态势,国际货币基金组织在报告中写道,为了重振经济增长,政策制定者必须通过持久的协议消除贸易壁垒,控制地缘政治紧张局势,并减少国内政策不确定性。这些行动有助于提升信心,并为投资、制造业和贸易注入新的活力。

    国际货币基金组织还肯定了货币政策对支持经济增长的重要作用。由于不存在通胀压力,并且经济活动在减弱,主要中央银行以适当幅度放松了货币政策,以缓解经济增长面临的下行风险,并防止通胀预期“脱锚”。报告认为,根据评估,如果不采取这种货币刺激,2019年和2020年全球的增长率都将下降0.5个百分点。

    不过国际货币基金组织也表示,为了防范经济增长面临的其他风险并提高潜在产出,经济政策应以更均衡的方式支持经济活动,不能仅仅依赖货币政策。在具备财政空间、政策尚未过度扩张的国家,还应同时提供财政支持。同时,各国现在还应实施有效的宏观审慎监管,以防止风险定价不当以及金融脆弱性的过度积累。

    国际货币基金组织首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特敦促政策制定者达成持久协议消除贸易壁垒、控制地缘政治紧张局势并减少政策不确定性,以提振信心并重振投资、制造业和贸易。同时,各国需要携手努力,因为“多边主义仍然是气候变化、网络安全风险、新兴金融技术挑战等重大问题的唯一解决途径”。

    克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃也强调了解决贸易紧张局势的重要性,她认为,首先要充分发挥贸易在促进经济增长方面的能力。她表示,既然整个世界相互交错、密不可分,那么我们就必须采取协调一致的应对措施。

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