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  • 德英意前景不妙 欧洲经济再临大考

    《经济参考报》8月13日刊发题为《德英意前景不妙 欧洲经济再临大考》的报道。文章称,近日,意大利政局再次陷入困境,意大利提前大选的可能性明显上升,前意大利总理莱塔11日甚至警告意大利有退出欧盟的风险,不确定性给意大利经济蒙上阴影。同时,德国、英国经济前景也不乐观。德国、英国和意大利经济预期不佳,使欧洲经济再临考验。

    政局不稳威胁意经济

    意大利联盟党与五星运动(5 Star Movement)两大民粹党派的联合政府上台仅14个月,但双方关系一直不睦。身兼意大利副总理与内政部长的联盟党党首萨尔维尼上周宣布,要让联盟党退出联合政府,并对现政府提出了不信任动议。萨尔维尼同时指责“五星运动”一再否决联盟党提出的各项改革举措,称“在否决和争吵中继续前进毫无意义。意大利人民需要更多的确定性和一个实干的政府”。

    5月26日欧洲议会选举后,两大执政党在修建里昂至都灵高速铁路、单一税制改革、最低工资收入改革、意北方部分大区自治等问题上始终处于针锋相对的状态。

    前意大利总理莱塔11日警告说,萨尔维尼的不负责任行为也有可能让意大利退出欧盟。莱塔评价萨尔维尼称,“没有原则。有一天,他可以说下一步想离开欧洲。有萨尔维尼在,意大利版的‘英国脱欧’并不是不可能。”他还表示, “意大利政治混乱是彻底的。”

    意大利执政联盟破裂,孔特政府面临不信任投票,政府正在进行中的各项改革举措将不得不因此中止,意大利十年期国债利率出现暴涨,与德国同期利率之差拉宽到6月以来新高,资金寻求避险。

    意大利在过去的五个季度中,只有一个季度出现增长。本来今年下半年意大利经济有可能缓慢复苏,但意大利与欧盟的冲突、欧美贸易冲突以及刚刚发生的联盟党退出联合政府事件,都可能破坏这一过程。

    德英经济均现疲软

    在去年经历短暂的增长放缓后,德国经济在2019年第一季度出现了反弹。但包括德国央行经济学家在内的许多分析人士预测,第二季度经济将再次收缩。

    6月份德国的工业产出按月算下降了1.5%,4至6月份下降了1.9%,是2012年以来最大的季度下滑幅度。除了建筑业以外的其他行业都出现下滑。由于对出口依赖较为严重,德国有可能成为全球贸易摩擦的牺牲品。今年6月德国出口额和进口额已经分别同比下降8%和4.4%。德国工商大会负责外贸事务的副总干事福尔克尔·特赖尔(Volker Treier)预计,2019年下半年,德国出口领域的表现难有起色。由此,德国的劳工市场表现不佳,德国的失业率在过去三个月中有两个月在上行。

    德国复兴信贷银行经济学家克劳斯·博格表示,这个夏天,德国经济已处在“停滞和衰退的边缘”。

    英国将于10月31日脱离欧盟,但脱欧局势的不断发展已经对英国经济产生了巨大影响,英国经济在第二季度意外萎缩,这是2012年以来的首次,显示出无协议脱欧不确定性对英国经济的影响。目前,英国的商业投资在过去的六个季度里已经有五个季度出现下滑。

    英格兰银行近日的报告下调了对未来两年英国经济增长预期。报告表示,预计英国经济今年将增长1.3%,低于5月份预测的1.5%。对2020年经济增长预期,从此前的1.6%下调至1.3%。由于英国与欧盟未来关系仍存在不确定性,预计今后几个月英国经济仅能实现微弱增长;明年初的英国经济,将有三分之一的几率出现萎缩,全球贸易紧张局势也对英国经济前景构成压力。

    路透社援引法国巴黎银行的分析称,目前英国的政治环境不稳定,时间表也很紧张,英国无协议脱欧的可能性已经从40%提高到50%。英格兰银行的报告称,无协议脱欧将打击英国经济,并引发英镑进一步贬值。英国央行行长马克·卡尼也表示,“如果不达成协议、不进行‘脱欧’过渡,英镑很可能下跌,英国资产的风险溢价将上升,波动性将飙升。”

    欧洲经济再临考验

    德国、英国和意大利是欧洲的三个主要国家,目前,这三个国家不是已经跌入衰退,就是在衰退边缘,这加大了对欧洲经济的挑战。一些分析人士担心欧洲经济前景将受到冲击,陷入衰退。

    分析人士表示,意大利在第四季度大选的机会是较大的,那时正是意大利与欧洲谈判财政预算的关键期。目前,意大利的债务相当于GDP的130%多,为历史高点,没有改善的迹象,意大利政府也无能为力。分析人士认为,目前对削减债务有利的三个方面,经济更快速的增长、较高的通胀水平和财政紧缩对于欧洲国家而言都难以实现。因此,意大利有可能面对债务重组或出现违约。

    欧洲中央银行8日发布经济公报已经警告称,全球增长前景有进一步恶化的风险,长期的不确定性正在抑制欧元区增长,特别是制造业部门。在此背景下,欧元区通胀依然低迷,通胀预期指标也有所下降。欧元区仍需要货币政策刺激,以确保有利的融资条件来支持经济扩张。

    但分析人士担忧,欧洲央行也可能力不从心。目前普遍预期欧洲央行可能在短期内启动新的宽松政策,在9月例会上会下调利率,或者重启政府债券和公司债券的购买计划。据测算,欧洲央行9月降息10个基点至-0.5%的概率为95.4%。但也有人认为欧洲央行不一定愿意去冒这个险,主要是现在欧洲的利率水平已经在-0.4%,继续下调利率对实体经济的效果并不一定明显,最多就是欧洲央行行长德拉吉在离任前的最后一搏。

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